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2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record (Minneapolis; 2021-11-02)

🔗 2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record     (tags: { Minneapolis_MN , 2021 , from-bolson , actual , 2021-11 , MN , Minneapolis-2021 })

Below is the ABIF from the "2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record" election (2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record (Minneapolis; 2021-11-02))

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Method options
Ballot options

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

Results

🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method Winner
IRV/RCV Michael Rainville
FPTP Michael Rainville
Approval Michael Rainville
STAR Michael Rainville
Condorcet/Copeland Michael Rainville
Election results summary showing voting method winners
click/tap to expand
tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record IRV/RCV result permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/IRV#IRV

  • IRV/RCV Winner: Michael Rainville with 6,907 votes (51.7%) in final round
  • Runner-up: Steve Fletcher with 5,658 votes (42.4%) in final round
  • Exhausted ballots in final round: 788 (5.9%)
  • Number of rounds: 4
  • Ballots counted in final round: 12,565 (94.1%)
  • Majority of ballots: 6,677 (50.0%)
  • Total ballots: 13,353
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Overview:
Active ballots: 13,353 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 0 (0.0%)
Counted ballots: 13,353 (100.0%)
Overview:
Active ballots: 13,353 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 37 (0.3%)
Counted ballots: 13,316 (99.7%)
Winning threshold: 6,659 (49.87%)
 		Overview:
Active ballots: 13,353 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 515 (3.9%)
Counted ballots: 12,838 (96.1%)
Winning threshold: 6,420 (48.08%)
 		Overview:
Active ballots: 13,353 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 788 (5.9%)
Counted ballots: 12,565 (94.1%)
Winning threshold: 6,283 (47.05%)
Michael Rainville: 6,027 (45.1%)
→
 Michael Rainville: 6,030 (45.2%)
→
 Michael Rainville: 6,186 (46.3%)
→
 IRV/RCV winner:
Michael Rainville: 6,907 (51.7%)✅
→
Steve Fletcher: 5,229 (39.2%)
→
 Steve Fletcher: 5,231 (39.2%)
→
 Steve Fletcher: 5,394 (40.4%)
→
 Steve Fletcher: 5,658 (42.4%) (🛑eliminated)
→
Merv Moorhead: 1,165 (8.7%)
→
 Merv Moorhead: 1,165 (8.7%)
→
 Merv Moorhead: 1,258 (9.4%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 Merv Moorhead
Hope Hennessey: 888 (6.7%)
→
 Hope Hennessey: 890 (6.7%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 Hope Hennessey Hope Hennessey
UWI: 44 (0.3%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 UWI UWI UWI

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record FPTP results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/FPTP#FPTP
📝
Note — Only using first-choices on ranked ballots

  • FPTP Winner: Michael Rainville with 6,027 first-place votes (45.1%)
  • Runner-up: Steve Fletcher with 5,229 first-place votes (39.2%)
  • Margin of victory: 798 votes (6.0 percentage points)
  • First-place votes
    • Michael Rainville: 6,027 votes (45.1 %)
    • Steve Fletcher: 5,229 votes (39.2 %)
    • Merv Moorhead: 1,165 votes (8.7 %)
    • Hope Hennessey: 888 votes (6.7 %)
    • UWI: 44 votes (0.3 %)
  • Total ballots: 13,353

Approval voting results

2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record approval voting results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/approval#approval
📝
Note — Approval counts estimated from 13,353 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method
Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 3 candidates appear viable: Michael Rainville, Steve Fletcher, and Merv Moorhead. The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 2 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 3, rounded up). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 2 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 13353}
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount_abif_metadata: "13353"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=UWI:[UWI]
=[Steve Fletcher]:[Steve Fletcher]
=[Michael Rainville]:[Michael Rainville]
=[Merv Moorhead]:[Merv Moorhead]
=[Hope Hennessey]:[Hope Hennessey]
#------- votelines ------
2664:[Steve Fletcher]/1
2410:[Michael Rainville]/1
1324:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
785:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
537:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
515:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
430:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
390:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
377:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
374:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
340:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
230:[Merv Moorhead]/1
178:[Steve Fletcher]/1
175:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
163:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
155:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
154:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
144:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
122:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
118:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
104:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
103:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
96:[Michael Rainville]/1
94:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
84:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
78:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
72:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
56:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
47:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
47:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
37:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
34:[Steve Fletcher]/1
31:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
30:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
28:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
28:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
26:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
26:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
24:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
21:[Merv Moorhead]/1
20:[Michael Rainville]/1
15:[Michael Rainville]/1
13:[Michael Rainville]/1
13:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
11:[Steve Fletcher]/1
9:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
8:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
8:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
8:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1
7:[Michael Rainville]/1
7:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
6:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
6:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
6:[Steve Fletcher]/1
4:[Merv Moorhead]/1
4:[Steve Fletcher]/1
3:[Steve Fletcher]/1
3:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=UWI/1
3:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
3:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1
2:[Merv Moorhead]/1
2:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=UWI/1
2:[Merv Moorhead]/1
2:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
2:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
2:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
2:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
2:[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
1:[Merv Moorhead]/1
1:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1=UWI/1
1:[Michael Rainville]/1
1:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1=UWI/1
1:[Merv Moorhead]/1=[Michael Rainville]/1=UWI/1
1:[Hope Hennessey]/1=[Merv Moorhead]/1
1:[Michael Rainville]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1=UWI/1
1:[Michael Rainville]/1=UWI/1
  • Approval Winner: Michael Rainville
  • Approval Results:
    • Michael Rainville — 8,577 approvals (64.23% of ballots) (✅ winner)
    • Steve Fletcher — 6,858 approvals (51.36% of ballots)
    • Merv Moorhead — 4,431 approvals (33.18% of ballots)
    • Hope Hennessey — 919 approvals (6.88% of ballots)
    • UWI — 10 approvals (0.07% of ballots)
  • Total: 13,353 ballots (20,795 total approvals)

STAR results

2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record STAR results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/STAR#STAR
📝
Note — STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method
Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 5 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 4 points, the 2nd choice gets 3 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

  • STAR winner: Michael Rainville
  • Finalists: Michael Rainville vs Steve Fletcher
  • Runoff result:
    • Michael Rainville: 6,907 votes (51.7%)
    • Steve Fletcher: 5,658 votes (42.4%)
    • No preference: 788 voters (5.9%)
  • Total stars allocated: 84,447
  • Total ballots: 13,353
★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★
★★★★★
★★★★★★
★★★★★
★★★★★★
★★★★★
★★★★★★
(one star above is approximately 1,689 stars allocated by voters)
  • First round:
    • ★#0: Michael Rainville received 32,532 stars (38.5%) from 9,095 voters (68.1%)
    • ★#1: Steve Fletcher received 26,763 stars (31.7%) from 7,451 voters (55.8%)
    • ★#2: Merv Moorhead received 16,702 stars (19.8%) from 5,731 voters (42.9%)
    • ★#3: Hope Hennessey received 7,825 stars (9.3%) from 2,611 voters (19.6%)
    • ★#4: UWI received 625 stars (0.7%) from 224 voters (1.7%)
  • Finalists:
    • ★Michael Rainville (✅ winner) preferred by 6,907 of 13,353 voters
    • ★Steve Fletcher preferred by 5,658 of 13,353 voters
    • ★No preference between the finalists: 788

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/pairwise#pairwise
  • Winner: Michael Rainville
  • Runner-up: Steve Fletcher (beats all other candidates except Michael Rainville)
  • Smallest margin: Hope Hennessey over UWI (2,606-172; margin: 2,434)
  • Largest margin: Michael Rainville over UWI (9,090-136; margin: 8,954)
  • Pairwise ties: none
  • Total ballots: 13,353

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record w-l-t table permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/pairwise#wlt
2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record (Minneapolis; 2021-11-02) pairwise matchups
Michael Rainville
(4-0-0)
Michael Rainville
4 victories ⇣
Steve Fletcher
(3-1-0)
Michael Rainville: 6,907(51.7%)
Steve Fletcher: 5,658(42.4%)
(No preference: 788; 5.9%)
Steve Fletcher
⇽ 1 loss / 3 victories† ⇣
Merv Moorhead
(2-2-0)
Michael Rainville: 7,856(58.8%)
Merv Moorhead: 2,045(15.3%)
(No preference: 3,452; 25.9%)
Steve Fletcher: 6,594(49.4%)
Merv Moorhead: 3,644(27.3%)
(No preference: 3,115; 23.3%)
Merv Moorhead
⇽ 2 losses / 2 victories† ⇣
Hope Hennessey
(1-3-0)
Michael Rainville: 8,679(65.0%)
Hope Hennessey: 1,465(11.0%)
(No preference: 3,209; 24.0%)
Steve Fletcher: 7,063(52.9%)
Hope Hennessey: 1,838(13.8%)
(No preference: 4,452; 33.3%)
Merv Moorhead: 5,286(39.6%)
Hope Hennessey: 1,916(14.3%)
(No preference: 6,151; 46.1%)
Hope Hennessey
⇽ 3 losses / 1 victory† ⇣
UWI
(0-4-0)
Michael Rainville: 9,090(68.1%)
UWI: 136(1.0%)
(No preference: 4,127; 30.9%)
Steve Fletcher: 7,448(55.8%)
UWI: 149(1.1%)
(No preference: 5,756; 43.1%)
Merv Moorhead: 5,727(42.9%)
UWI: 168(1.3%)
(No preference: 7,458; 55.9%)
Hope Hennessey: 2,606(19.5%)
UWI: 172(1.3%)
(No preference: 10,575; 79.2%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record pairwise diagram permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2021-11-02_Minneapolis-2021-Ward-3-Cast-Vote-Record/pairwise#dot

%3 Michael Rainville Michael Rainville 4-0-0 (4 wins, 0 losses, 0 ties) Steve Fletcher Steve Fletcher 3-1-0 Michael Rainville->Steve Fletcher ← Michael Rainville: 6907 Steve Fletcher: 5658 Merv Moorhead Merv Moorhead 2-2-0 Michael Rainville->Merv Moorhead ← Michael Rainville: 7856 Merv Moorhead: 2045 Hope Hennessey Hope Hennessey 1-3-0 Michael Rainville->Hope Hennessey ← Michael Rainville: 8679 Hope Hennessey: 1465 UWI UWI 0-4-0 Michael Rainville->UWI ← Michael Rainville: 9090 UWI: 136 Steve Fletcher->Merv Moorhead ← Steve Fletcher: 6594 Merv Moorhead: 3644 Steve Fletcher->Hope Hennessey ← Steve Fletcher: 7063 Hope Hennessey: 1838 Steve Fletcher->UWI ← Steve Fletcher: 7448 UWI: 149 Merv Moorhead->Hope Hennessey ← Merv Moorhead: 5286 Hope Hennessey: 1916 Merv Moorhead->UWI ← Merv Moorhead: 5727 UWI: 168 Hope Hennessey->UWI ← Hope Hennessey: 2606 UWI: 172

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

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