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Senate_District_J (Alaska; 2022-08-16)

πŸ”— 2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J     (tags: { from-bolson , actual , 2022 , AK , local , Alaska-2022 , 2022-08 })

Below is the ABIF from the "2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J" election (Senate_District_J (Alaska; 2022-08-16))

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Method options
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Voting methods: IRV β€’ FPTP β€’ approval β€’ STAR β€’ Pairwise β€’ All methods

Results

πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method Winner
IRV/RCV Dunbar, Forrest
FPTP Dunbar, Forrest
Approval Dunbar, Forrest
STAR Dunbar, Forrest
Condorcet/Copeland Dunbar, Forrest
Election results summary showing voting method winners
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tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J IRV/RCV result permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/IRV#IRV

  • IRV/RCV Winner: Dunbar, Forrest with 2,947 votes (45.5%) in final round
  • Runner-up: Satterfield, Andrew E. with 1,904 votes (29.4%) in final round
  • Exhausted ballots in final round: 709 (10.9%)
  • Number of rounds: 2
  • Ballots counted in final round: 5,767 (89.1%)
  • Majority of ballots: 3,239 (50.0%)
  • Total ballots: 6,476
Round 1 Round 2
Overview:
Active ballots: 6,476 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 507 (7.8%)
Overvotes: 1 (0.0%)

Counted ballots: 5,968 (92.2%)
Winning threshold: 2,985 (46.09%)
Overview:
Active ballots: 6,475 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 708 (10.9%)
Counted ballots: 5,767 (89.1%)
Winning threshold: 2,884 (44.53%)
Dunbar, Forrest: 2,947 (45.5%)
β†’
IRV/RCV winner:
Dunbar, Forrest: 2,947 (45.5%)βœ…
β†’
Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904 (29.4%)
β†’
Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904 (29.4%) (πŸ›‘eliminated)
β†’
Tarr, Geran: 916 (14.1%)
β†’
Tarr, Geran: 916 (14.1%) (πŸ›‘eliminated)
β†’
Cason, Drew: 201 (3.1%) (πŸ›‘eliminated)
β†’
Cason, Drew

Overvotes are ballots where multiple candidates are ranked at the same, highest-ranking position.

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J FPTP results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/FPTP#FPTP
πŸ“
Note β€” Only using first-choices on ranked ballots

  • FPTP Winner: Dunbar, Forrest with 2,947 first-place votes (45.5%)
  • Runner-up: Satterfield, Andrew E. with 1,904 first-place votes (29.4%)
  • Margin of victory: 1,043 votes (16.1 percentage points)
  • First-place votes
    • Dunbar, Forrest: 2,947 votes (45.5 %)
    • Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904 votes (29.4 %)
    • Tarr, Geran: 916 votes (14.1 %)
    • Cason, Drew: 201 votes (3.1 %)
  • Overvotes: 1 (0.0 %)
  • Blanks: 507 (7.8 %)
  • Total ballots: 6,476

Approval voting results

2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J approval voting results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/approval#approval
πŸ“
Note β€” Approval counts estimated from 6,476 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method
Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 3 candidates appear viable: Dunbar, Forrest, Satterfield, Andrew E., and Tarr, Geran. The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 2 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 3, rounded up). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 2 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 6476}
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount_abif_metadata: "6476"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=[Dunbar, Forrest]:[Dunbar, Forrest]
=[Satterfield, Andrew E.]:[Satterfield, Andrew E.]
=[Tarr, Geran]:[Tarr, Geran]
=[Cason, Drew]:[Cason, Drew]
#------- votelines ------
2947:[Dunbar, Forrest]/1
1904:[Satterfield, Andrew E.]/1
916:[Tarr, Geran]/1
  • Approval Winner: Dunbar, Forrest
  • Approval Results:
    • Dunbar, Forrest — 2,947 approvals (45.51% of ballots) (βœ… winner)
    • Satterfield, Andrew E. — 1,904 approvals (29.4% of ballots)
    • Tarr, Geran — 916 approvals (14.14% of ballots)
  • Total: 6,476 ballots (5,767 total approvals)

STAR results

2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J STAR results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/STAR#STAR
πŸ“
Note β€” STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method
Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 4 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 3 points, the 2nd choice gets 2 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

  • STAR winner: Dunbar, Forrest
  • Finalists: Dunbar, Forrest vs Satterfield, Andrew E.
  • Runoff result:
    • Dunbar, Forrest: 2,948 votes (45.5%)
    • Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904 votes (29.4%)
    • No preference: 1624 voters (25.1%)
  • Total stars allocated: 17,910
  • Total ballots: 6,476
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
(one star above is approximately 358 stars allocated by voters)
  • First round:
    • β˜…#0: Dunbar, Forrest received 8,844 stars (49.4%) from 2,948 voters (45.5%)
    • β˜…#1: Satterfield, Andrew E. received 5,712 stars (31.9%) from 1,904 voters (29.4%)
    • β˜…#2: Tarr, Geran received 2,751 stars (15.4%) from 917 voters (14.2%)
    • β˜…#3: Cason, Drew received 603 stars (3.4%) from 201 voters (3.1%)
  • Finalists:
    • β˜…Dunbar, Forrest (βœ… winner) preferred by 2,948 of 6,476 voters
    • β˜…Satterfield, Andrew E. preferred by 1,904 of 6,476 voters
    • β˜…No preference between the finalists: 1624

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/pairwise#pairwise
  • Winner: Dunbar, Forrest
  • Runner-up: Satterfield, Andrew E. (beats all other candidates except Dunbar, Forrest)
  • Smallest margin: Tarr, Geran over Cason, Drew (917-201; margin: 716)
  • Largest margin: Dunbar, Forrest over Satterfield, Andrew E. (2,948-1,904; margin: 1,044)
  • Pairwise ties: none
  • Total ballots: 6,476

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J w-l-t table permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/pairwise#wlt
Senate_District_J (Alaska; 2022-08-16) pairwise matchups
Dunbar, Forrest
(3-0-0)
Dunbar, Forrest
3 victories ⇣
Satterfield, Andrew E.
(2-1-0)
Dunbar, Forrest: 2,948(45.5%)
Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904(29.4%)
(No preference: 1,624; 25.1%)
Satterfield, Andrew E.
⇽ 1 loss / 2 victories† ⇣
Tarr, Geran
(1-2-0)
Dunbar, Forrest: 2,947(45.5%)
Tarr, Geran: 916(14.1%)
(No preference: 2,613; 40.3%)
Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904(29.4%)
Tarr, Geran: 917(14.2%)
(No preference: 3,655; 56.4%)
Tarr, Geran
⇽ 2 losses / 1 victory† ⇣
Cason, Drew
(0-3-0)
Dunbar, Forrest: 2,948(45.5%)
Cason, Drew: 201(3.1%)
(No preference: 3,327; 51.4%)
Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1,904(29.4%)
Cason, Drew: 201(3.1%)
(No preference: 4,371; 67.5%)
Tarr, Geran: 917(14.2%)
Cason, Drew: 201(3.1%)
(No preference: 5,358; 82.7%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J pairwise diagram permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-08-16_Alaska-Senate_District_J/pairwise#dot

%3 Dunbar, Forrest Dunbar, Forrest 3-0-0 (3 wins, 0 losses, 0 ties) Satterfield, Andrew E. Satterfield, Andrew E. 2-1-0 Dunbar, Forrest->Satterfield, Andrew E. ← Dunbar, Forrest: 2948 Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1904 Tarr, Geran Tarr, Geran 1-2-0 Dunbar, Forrest->Tarr, Geran ← Dunbar, Forrest: 2947 Tarr, Geran: 916 Cason, Drew Cason, Drew 0-3-0 Dunbar, Forrest->Cason, Drew ← Dunbar, Forrest: 2948 Cason, Drew: 201 Satterfield, Andrew E.->Tarr, Geran ← Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1904 Tarr, Geran: 917 Satterfield, Andrew E.->Cason, Drew ← Satterfield, Andrew E.: 1904 Cason, Drew: 201 Tarr, Geran->Cason, Drew ← Tarr, Geran: 917 Cason, Drew: 201

Voting methods: IRV β€’ FPTP β€’ approval β€’ STAR β€’ Pairwise β€’ All methods

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