2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records (Minneapolis; 2017-11-07)

🔗 2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records (tags: { Minneapolis_MN , from-bolson , actual , 2017-11 , MN , 2017 , Minneapolis-2017 })

Below is the ABIF from the "2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records" election (2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records (Minneapolis; 2017-11-07))

ABIF submission area (show)

#------- metadata -------
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount: 9592}
#------ candlines ------
=[Ginger Jentzen]:[Ginger Jentzen]
=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
=[Steve Fletcher]:[Steve Fletcher]
=[Tim Bildsoe]:[Tim Bildsoe]
=UWI:[UWI]
#------- votelines ------
783:[Ginger Jentzen]
695:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]
624:[Tim Bildsoe]
574:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
538:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]
522:[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]
422:[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
421:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
406:[Steve Fletcher]
376:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]
293:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
271:[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]
255:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]
243:[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]
221:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]
204:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Tim Bildsoe]
204:[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
201:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]
161:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]
159:[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Tim Bildsoe]
156:[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]>[Tim Bildsoe]
153:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]
146:[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]
145:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]
134:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
131:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]
119:[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
111:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]
89:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]
82:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]
81:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]
77:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
57:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
56:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]>[Tim Bildsoe]
56:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Tim Bildsoe]
46:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
44:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]
38:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]>UWI
36:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Tim Bildsoe]
32:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]
30:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]
29:[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]>UWI
28:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>UWI
21:UWI
15:[Ginger Jentzen]>UWI
10:[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>UWI
7:[Tim Bildsoe]>UWI
7:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]>UWI
7:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]>UWI
6:[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]
6:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Tim Bildsoe]
6:[Ginger Jentzen]
4:[Ginger Jentzen]>UWI>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
3:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]
3:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]
3:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]
3:[Steve Fletcher]>UWI
3:UWI>[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]
3:[Steve Fletcher]>UWI>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
3:[Ginger Jentzen]>UWI>[Tim Bildsoe]
2:[Steve Fletcher]>UWI>[Tim Bildsoe]
2:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Ginger Jentzen]
2:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
2:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>UWI
2:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Ginger Jentzen]>UWI
2:[Steve Fletcher]
2:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]>UWI
2:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
2:[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]>UWI
1:[Steve Fletcher]>[Ginger Jentzen]
1:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Steve Fletcher]
1:[Tim Bildsoe]>UWI>[Steve Fletcher]
1:UWI>[Steve Fletcher]>[Tim Bildsoe]
1:[Ginger Jentzen]>[Steve Fletcher]
1:[Tim Bildsoe]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>UWI
1:[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
1:[Ginger Jentzen]
1:[Steve Fletcher]
1:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Tim Bildsoe]
1:UWI>[Tim Bildsoe]
1:[Tim Bildsoe]
1:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]>[Steve Fletcher]
1:[Steve Fletcher]>[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
1:UWI>[Ginger Jentzen]

Method options

FPTP results?

IRV/RCV results?

IRV extra analysis?

Approval results?

STAR results?

pairwise (Condorcet/Copeland) results?

pairwise tournament diagram?

Ballot options Transform ballots (using ballot-type metadata)?

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

Results

🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method	Winner
IRV/RCV	Steve Fletcher
FPTP	Ginger Jentzen
Approval	Steve Fletcher
STAR	Steve Fletcher
Condorcet/Copeland	Steve Fletcher

OFF ON tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records IRV/RCV result permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/IRV#IRV

IRV/RCV Winner: Steve Fletcher with 4,861 votes (50.7%) in final round
Runner-up: Ginger Jentzen with 3,844 votes (40.1%) in final round
Exhausted ballots in final round: 887 (9.2%)
Number of rounds: 4
Ballots counted in final round: 8,705 (90.8%)
Majority of ballots: 4,797 (50.0%)
Total ballots: 9,592

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
Overview: Active ballots: 9,592 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 0 (0.0%) Counted ballots: 9,592 (100.0%)	Overview: Active ballots: 9,592 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 21 (0.2%) Counted ballots: 9,571 (99.8%) Winning threshold: 4,786 (49.90%)	Overview: Active ballots: 9,592 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 157 (1.6%) Counted ballots: 9,435 (98.4%) Winning threshold: 4,718 (49.19%)	Overview: Active ballots: 9,592 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 887 (9.2%) Counted ballots: 8,705 (90.8%) Winning threshold: 4,353 (45.38%)
Ginger Jentzen: 3,297 (34.4%) →	Ginger Jentzen: 3,298 (34.4%) →	Ginger Jentzen: 3,598 (37.5%) →	Ginger Jentzen: 3,844 (40.1%) (🛑eliminated) →
Steve Fletcher: 2,709 (28.2%) →	Steve Fletcher: 2,710 (28.3%) →	Steve Fletcher: 3,103 (32.3%) →	IRV/RCV winner: Steve Fletcher: 4,861 (50.7%)✅ →
Tim Bildsoe: 2,552 (26.6%) →	Tim Bildsoe: 2,556 (26.6%) →	Tim Bildsoe: 2,734 (28.5%) (🛑eliminated) →	~~Tim Bildsoe~~
Samantha Pree-Stinson: 1,007 (10.5%) →	Samantha Pree-Stinson: 1,007 (10.5%) (🛑eliminated) →	~~Samantha Pree-Stinson~~	~~Samantha Pree-Stinson~~
UWI: 27 (0.3%) (🛑eliminated) →	~~UWI~~	~~UWI~~	~~UWI~~

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records FPTP results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/FPTP#FPTP

FPTP Winner: Ginger Jentzen with 3,297 first-place votes (34.4%)
Runner-up: Steve Fletcher with 2,709 first-place votes (28.2%)
Margin of victory: 588 votes (6.1 percentage points)
First-place votes
- Ginger Jentzen: 3,297 votes (34.4 %)
- Steve Fletcher: 2,709 votes (28.2 %)
- Tim Bildsoe: 2,552 votes (26.6 %)
- Samantha Pree-Stinson: 1,007 votes (10.5 %)
- UWI: 27 votes (0.3 %)
Total ballots: 9,592

Approval voting results

2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records approval voting results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/approval#approval

📝

Note — Approval counts estimated from 9,592 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method

Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 3 candidates appear viable: Ginger Jentzen, Steve Fletcher, and Tim Bildsoe. The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 2 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 3, rounded up). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 2 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 9592}
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount_abif_metadata: "9592"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=UWI:[UWI]
=[Ginger Jentzen]:[Ginger Jentzen]
=[Tim Bildsoe]:[Tim Bildsoe]
=[Steve Fletcher]:[Steve Fletcher]
=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]
#------- votelines ------
783:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
695:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
624:[Tim Bildsoe]/1
574:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
538:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
522:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
422:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
421:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
406:[Steve Fletcher]/1
376:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
293:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
271:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
255:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
243:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
221:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
204:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
204:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
201:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
161:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
159:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
156:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
153:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
146:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
145:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
131:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
119:[Steve Fletcher]/1
111:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
89:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
82:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1
81:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
77:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
57:[Tim Bildsoe]/1
56:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
56:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
46:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
44:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
38:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
36:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
32:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
30:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
29:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
28:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
15:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
10:[Steve Fletcher]/1
7:[Tim Bildsoe]/1
7:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
7:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1
6:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
6:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
6:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
4:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
3:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
3:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
3:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
3:[Steve Fletcher]/1
3:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1=UWI/1
3:[Steve Fletcher]/1
3:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1=UWI/1
2:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1=UWI/1
2:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1
2:[Tim Bildsoe]/1
2:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
2:[Steve Fletcher]/1
2:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
2:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
2:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1=UWI/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1=UWI/1
1:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Tim Bildsoe]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Ginger Jentzen]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Tim Bildsoe]/1
1:[Tim Bildsoe]/1=UWI/1
1:[Tim Bildsoe]/1
1:[Samantha Pree-Stinson]/1=[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Steve Fletcher]/1
1:[Ginger Jentzen]/1=UWI/1

Approval Winner: Steve Fletcher
Approval Results:
- Steve Fletcher — 6,578 approvals (68.58% of ballots) (✅ winner)
- Tim Bildsoe — 4,964 approvals (51.75% of ballots)
- Ginger Jentzen — 4,741 approvals (49.43% of ballots)
- Samantha Pree-Stinson — 2,178 approvals (22.71% of ballots)
- UWI — 12 approvals (0.13% of ballots)
Total: 9,592 ballots (18,473 total approvals)

STAR results

2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records STAR results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/STAR#STAR

📝

Note — STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method

Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 5 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 4 points, the 2nd choice gets 3 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

STAR winner: Steve Fletcher
Finalists: Steve Fletcher vs Ginger Jentzen
Runoff result:
- Steve Fletcher: 4,861 votes (50.7%)
- Ginger Jentzen: 3,844 votes (40.1%)
- No preference: 887 voters (9.2%)
Total stars allocated: 71,603
Total ballots: 9,592

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

(one star above is approximately 1,432 stars allocated by voters)

First round:
- ★#0: Steve Fletcher received 22,194 stars (31.0%) from 6,922 voters (72.2%)
- ★#1: Ginger Jentzen received 18,014 stars (25.2%) from 5,213 voters (54.3%)
- ★#2: Tim Bildsoe received 17,922 stars (25.0%) from 5,496 voters (57.3%)
- ★#3: Samantha Pree-Stinson received 12,993 stars (18.1%) from 4,579 voters (47.7%)
- ★#4: UWI received 480 stars (0.7%) from 193 voters (2.0%)
Finalists:
- ★Steve Fletcher (✅ winner) preferred by 4,861 of 9,592 voters
- ★Ginger Jentzen preferred by 3,844 of 9,592 voters
- ★No preference between the finalists: 887

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/pairwise#pairwise

Winner: Steve Fletcher
Runner-up: Ginger Jentzen (beats all other candidates except Steve Fletcher)
Smallest margin: Ginger Jentzen over Samantha Pree-Stinson (4,463-2,762; margin: 1,701)
Largest margin: Steve Fletcher over UWI (6,917-97; margin: 6,820)
Pairwise ties: none
Total ballots: 9,592

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records w-l-t table permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/pairwise#wlt

2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records (Minneapolis; 2017-11-07) pairwise matchups
Steve Fletcher (4-0-0)	Steve Fletcher 4 victories ⇣
Ginger Jentzen (3-1-0)	Steve Fletcher: 4,861(50.7%) Ginger Jentzen: 3,844(40.1%) (No preference: 887; 9.2%)	Ginger Jentzen ⇽ 1 loss / 3 victories^† ⇣
Tim Bildsoe (2-2-0)	Steve Fletcher: 4,820(50.3%) Tim Bildsoe: 3,391(35.4%) (No preference: 1,381; 14.4%)	Ginger Jentzen: 4,495(46.9%) Tim Bildsoe: 4,307(44.9%) (No preference: 790; 8.2%)	Tim Bildsoe ⇽ 2 losses / 2 victories^† ⇣
Samantha Pree-Stinson (1-3-0)	Steve Fletcher: 5,596(58.3%) Samantha Pree-Stinson: 2,422(25.3%) (No preference: 1,574; 16.4%)	Ginger Jentzen: 4,463(46.5%) Samantha Pree-Stinson: 2,762(28.8%) (No preference: 2,367; 24.7%)	Tim Bildsoe: 4,738(49.4%) Samantha Pree-Stinson: 3,237(33.7%) (No preference: 1,617; 16.9%)	Samantha Pree-Stinson ⇽ 3 losses / 1 victory^† ⇣
UWI (0-4-0)	Steve Fletcher: 6,917(72.1%) UWI: 97(1.0%) (No preference: 2,578; 26.9%)	Ginger Jentzen: 5,212(54.3%) UWI: 125(1.3%) (No preference: 4,255; 44.4%)	Tim Bildsoe: 5,486(57.2%) UWI: 115(1.2%) (No preference: 3,991; 41.6%)	Samantha Pree-Stinson: 4,572(47.7%) UWI: 143(1.5%) (No preference: 4,877; 50.8%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records pairwise diagram permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2017-11-07_Minneapolis-2017-Ward-3-Ballot-Records/pairwise#dot

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

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