Member City Council Dist. 2 - Oakland (AlamedaCounty; 2022-11-08)

🔗 2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland (tags: { AlamedaCounty_CA , from-bolson , actual , 2022 , AlamedaCounty-2022 , 2022-11 , CA })

Below is the ABIF from the "2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland" election (Member City Council Dist. 2 - Oakland (AlamedaCounty; 2022-11-08))

ABIF submission area (show)

#------- metadata -------
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount: 15962}
#------ candlines ------
=[HAROLD LOWE]:[HAROLD LOWE]
=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
=Write-in:[Write-in]
#------- votelines ------
6296:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
4061:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
2643:[HAROLD LOWE]
2095:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
110:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
79:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
60:Write-in
58:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
49:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
46:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
44:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
44:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
42:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
32:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
31:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
27:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
25:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
13:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
13:Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
12:Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
12:Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
11:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
9:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
9:Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
7:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
7:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
6:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
6:[HAROLD LOWE]
6:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
6:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
6:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
6:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
5:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
5:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
5:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
5:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
4:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
4:[HAROLD LOWE]=Write-in
3:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
3:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
3:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
3:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
3:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
2:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
2:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
2:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
2:Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
2:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
2:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
2:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
2:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
2:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
1:Write-in
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]=Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]=Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
1:Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]=Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]=Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]=Write-in>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in>[HAROLD LOWE]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>Write-in
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]>[HAROLD LOWE]>Write-in
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]>[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
1:[HAROLD LOWE]=Write-in
1:[HAROLD LOWE]

Method options

FPTP results?

IRV/RCV results?

IRV extra analysis?

Approval results?

STAR results?

pairwise (Condorcet/Copeland) results?

pairwise tournament diagram?

Ballot options Transform ballots (using ballot-type metadata)?

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

Results

🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method	Winner
IRV/RCV	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
FPTP	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
Approval	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
STAR	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
Condorcet/Copeland	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS

OFF ON tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland IRV/RCV result permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/IRV#IRV

IRV/RCV Winner: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS with 10,679 votes (66.9%) in final round
Runner-up: HAROLD LOWE with 5,094 votes (31.9%) in final round
Exhausted ballots in final round: 77 (0.5%)
Number of rounds: 1
Ballots counted in final round: 15,885 (99.5%)
Majority of ballots: 7,982 (50.0%)
Total ballots: 15,962

Round 1
Overview: Active ballots: 15,962 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 0 (0.0%) Overvotes: 77 (0.5%) Counted ballots: 15,885 (99.5%) Winning threshold: 7,943 (49.76%)
IRV/RCV winner: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS: 10,679 (66.9%)✅ →
HAROLD LOWE: 5,094 (31.9%) (🛑eliminated) →
Write-in: 112 (0.7%) (🛑eliminated) →

Overvotes are ballots where multiple candidates are ranked at the same, highest-ranking position.

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland FPTP results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/FPTP#FPTP

FPTP Winner: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS with 10,679 first-place votes (66.9%)
Runner-up: HAROLD LOWE with 5,094 first-place votes (31.9%)
Margin of victory: 5,585 votes (35.0 percentage points)
First-place votes
- NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS: 10,679 votes (66.9 %)
- HAROLD LOWE: 5,094 votes (31.9 %)
- Write-in: 112 votes (0.7 %)
Overvotes: 77 (0.5 %)
Total ballots: 15,962

Approval voting results

2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland approval voting results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/approval#approval

📝

Note — Approval counts estimated from 15,962 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method

Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 2 candidates appear viable: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS and HAROLD LOWE. The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 1 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 2). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 1 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 15962}
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount_abif_metadata: "15962"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=Write-in:[Write-in]
=[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]
=[HAROLD LOWE]:[HAROLD LOWE]
#------- votelines ------
6296:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
4061:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
2643:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
2095:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
110:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
79:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
58:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
49:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
46:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
44:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
44:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
42:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
31:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
27:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
25:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
13:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
13:[HAROLD LOWE]/1=Write-in/1
12:[HAROLD LOWE]/1=Write-in/1
12:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1=Write-in/1
11:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
9:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
9:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1=Write-in/1
7:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
6:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
6:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
6:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
5:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
5:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
5:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
4:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
3:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
3:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
3:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
3:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
2:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
2:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
2:[HAROLD LOWE]/1=Write-in/1
2:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
2:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
2:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
2:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
2:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1=Write-in/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1=Write-in/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1=Write-in/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1
1:[HAROLD LOWE]/1

Approval Winner: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
Approval Results:
- NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS — 10,701 approvals (67.04% of ballots) (✅ winner)
- HAROLD LOWE — 5,123 approvals (32.09% of ballots)
- Write-in — 51 approvals (0.32% of ballots)
Total: 15,962 ballots (15,875 total approvals)

STAR results

2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland STAR results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/STAR#STAR

📝

Note — STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method

Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 3 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 2 points, the 2nd choice gets 1 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

STAR winner: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
Finalists: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS vs HAROLD LOWE
Runoff result:
- NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS: 10,715 votes (67.1%)
- HAROLD LOWE: 5,129 votes (32.1%)
- No preference: 118 voters (0.7%)
Total stars allocated: 38,987
Total ballots: 15,962

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(one star above is approximately 780 stars allocated by voters)

First round:
- ★#0: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS received 23,795 stars (61.0%) from 13,046 voters (81.7%)
- ★#1: HAROLD LOWE received 14,638 stars (37.5%) from 9,481 voters (59.4%)
- ★#2: Write-in received 554 stars (1.4%) from 411 voters (2.6%)
Finalists:
- ★NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS (✅ winner) preferred by 10,715 of 15,962 voters
- ★HAROLD LOWE preferred by 5,129 of 15,962 voters
- ★No preference between the finalists: 118

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/pairwise#pairwise

Winner: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS
Runner-up: HAROLD LOWE (beats all other candidates except NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS)
Smallest margin: HAROLD LOWE over Write-in (9,425-210; margin: 9,215)
Largest margin: NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS over Write-in (12,988-290; margin: 12,698)
Pairwise ties: none
Total ballots: 15,962

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland w-l-t table permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/pairwise#wlt

Member City Council Dist. 2 - Oakland (AlamedaCounty; 2022-11-08) pairwise matchups
NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS (2-0-0)	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS 2 victories ⇣
HAROLD LOWE (1-1-0)	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS: 10,715(67.1%) HAROLD LOWE: 5,129(32.1%) (No preference: 118; 0.7%)	HAROLD LOWE ⇽ 1 loss / 1 victory^† ⇣
Write-in (0-2-0)	NIKKI FORTUNATO BAS: 12,988(81.4%) Write-in: 290(1.8%) (No preference: 2,684; 16.8%)	HAROLD LOWE: 9,425(59.0%) Write-in: 210(1.3%) (No preference: 6,327; 39.6%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland pairwise diagram permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_AlamedaCounty-Member_City_Council_Dist._2_-_Oakland/pairwise#dot

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

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