20221108_ME_CD2 (Maine; 2022-11-08)

🔗 2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 (tags: { from-bolson , actual , 2022 , 2022-11 , Maine-2022 , ME })

Below is the ABIF from the "2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2" election (20221108_ME_CD2 (Maine; 2022-11-08))

ABIF submission area (show)

#------- metadata -------
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount: 316855}
#------ candlines ------
=[Poliquin, Bruce]:[Poliquin, Bruce]
=[Golden, Jared Forrest]:[Golden, Jared Forrest]
=[Bond, Tiffany]:[Bond, Tiffany]
=Write-in:[Write-in]
#------- votelines ------
97622:[Poliquin, Bruce]
54981:[Golden, Jared Forrest]
54245:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]
27015:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
16072:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
11238:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]
8069:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]
5963:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in
5743:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
5554:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]
5286:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
4810:[Bond, Tiffany]
2971:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
2970:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
2647:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
2096:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in
1555:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]
1354:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
969:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]
848:[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]
728:[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in
517:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]>Write-in
441:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]
362:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
316:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
286:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
212:Write-in
199:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
170:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in
167:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>Write-in
159:[Golden, Jared Forrest]
149:[Bond, Tiffany]
144:[Poliquin, Bruce]
96:[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
80:[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
66:[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in>[Poliquin, Bruce]
59:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]>Write-in
58:[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in
52:[Poliquin, Bruce]
50:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in
45:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
39:[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
37:[Golden, Jared Forrest]
33:Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
30:[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in
29:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]
27:[Bond, Tiffany]
26:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]
25:Write-in>[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
25:Write-in>[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Bond, Tiffany]
24:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>Write-in>[Poliquin, Bruce]
21:Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Bond, Tiffany]
20:[Poliquin, Bruce]>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
20:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>Write-in
19:Write-in>[Poliquin, Bruce]
18:[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
17:Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
15:Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
14:Write-in
13:Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]
11:[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in
8:Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]
7:Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]>[Poliquin, Bruce]
4:[Bond, Tiffany]>Write-in
2:Write-in
2:[Poliquin, Bruce]>Write-in
2:Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
1:Write-in>[Bond, Tiffany]
1:Write-in>[Golden, Jared Forrest]
1:Write-in>[Poliquin, Bruce]

Method options

FPTP results?

IRV/RCV results?

IRV extra analysis?

Approval results?

STAR results?

pairwise (Condorcet/Copeland) results?

pairwise tournament diagram?

Ballot options Transform ballots (using ballot-type metadata)?

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

Results

🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method	Winner
IRV/RCV	Golden, Jared Forrest
FPTP	Golden, Jared Forrest
Approval	Golden, Jared Forrest
STAR	Golden, Jared Forrest
Condorcet/Copeland	Golden, Jared Forrest

OFF ON tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 IRV/RCV result permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/IRV#IRV

IRV/RCV Winner: Golden, Jared Forrest with 165,251 votes (52.2%) in final round
Runner-up: Poliquin, Bruce with 146,295 votes (46.2%) in final round
Exhausted ballots in final round: 5,309 (1.7%)
Number of rounds: 3
Ballots counted in final round: 311,546 (98.3%)
Majority of ballots: 158,428 (50.0%)
Total ballots: 316,855

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3
Overview: Active ballots: 316,855 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 0 (0.0%) Counted ballots: 316,855 (100.0%)	Overview: Active ballots: 316,855 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 228 (0.1%) Counted ballots: 316,627 (99.9%) Winning threshold: 158,314 (49.96%)	Overview: Active ballots: 316,855 (100.0%) Exhausted ballots: 5,309 (1.7%) Counted ballots: 311,546 (98.3%) Winning threshold: 155,774 (49.16%)
Golden, Jared Forrest: 153,191 (48.3%) →	Golden, Jared Forrest: 153,237 (48.4%) →	IRV/RCV winner: Golden, Jared Forrest: 165,251 (52.2%)✅ →
Poliquin, Bruce: 141,404 (44.6%) →	Poliquin, Bruce: 141,474 (44.6%) →	Poliquin, Bruce: 146,295 (46.2%) (🛑eliminated) →
Bond, Tiffany: 21,844 (6.9%) →	Bond, Tiffany: 21,916 (6.9%) (🛑eliminated) →	~~Bond, Tiffany~~
Write-in: 416 (0.1%) (🛑eliminated) →	~~Write-in~~	~~Write-in~~

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 FPTP results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/FPTP#FPTP

FPTP Winner: Golden, Jared Forrest with 153,191 first-place votes (48.3%)
Runner-up: Poliquin, Bruce with 141,404 first-place votes (44.6%)
Margin of victory: 11,787 votes (3.7 percentage points)
First-place votes
- Golden, Jared Forrest: 153,191 votes (48.3 %)
- Poliquin, Bruce: 141,404 votes (44.6 %)
- Bond, Tiffany: 21,844 votes (6.9 %)
- Write-in: 416 votes (0.1 %)
Total ballots: 316,855

Approval voting results

2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 approval voting results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/approval#approval

📝

Note — Approval counts estimated from 316,855 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method

Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 3 candidates appear viable: Golden, Jared Forrest, Poliquin, Bruce, and Bond, Tiffany. The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 2 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 3, rounded up). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 2 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 316855}
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount_abif_metadata: "316855"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=Write-in:[Write-in]
=[Poliquin, Bruce]:[Poliquin, Bruce]
=[Golden, Jared Forrest]:[Golden, Jared Forrest]
=[Bond, Tiffany]:[Bond, Tiffany]
#------- votelines ------
97622:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
54981:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
54245:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
27015:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
16072:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
11238:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
8069:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
5963:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
5743:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
5554:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
5286:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
4810:[Bond, Tiffany]/1
2971:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
2970:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
2647:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
2096:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
1555:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
1354:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
969:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
848:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
728:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
517:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
441:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
362:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
316:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
286:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
199:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
170:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
167:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
159:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
149:[Bond, Tiffany]/1
144:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
96:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
80:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
66:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
59:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
58:[Bond, Tiffany]/1
52:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
50:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
45:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
39:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
37:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
33:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
30:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
29:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
27:[Bond, Tiffany]/1
26:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
25:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
25:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
24:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
21:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
20:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
20:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1
19:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
18:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
17:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
15:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
13:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=Write-in/1
11:[Bond, Tiffany]/1
8:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=Write-in/1
7:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1
4:[Bond, Tiffany]/1
2:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1
2:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
1:[Bond, Tiffany]/1=Write-in/1
1:[Golden, Jared Forrest]/1=Write-in/1
1:[Poliquin, Bruce]/1=Write-in/1

Approval Winner: Golden, Jared Forrest
Approval Results:
- Golden, Jared Forrest — 176,853 approvals (55.82% of ballots) (✅ winner)
- Poliquin, Bruce — 154,881 approvals (48.88% of ballots)
- Bond, Tiffany — 142,459 approvals (44.96% of ballots)
- Write-in — 1,743 approvals (0.55% of ballots)
Total: 316,855 ballots (475,936 total approvals)

STAR results

2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 STAR results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/STAR#STAR

📝

Note — STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method

Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 4 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 3 points, the 2nd choice gets 2 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

STAR winner: Golden, Jared Forrest
Finalists: Golden, Jared Forrest vs Poliquin, Bruce
Runoff result:
- Golden, Jared Forrest: 165,251 votes (52.2%)
- Poliquin, Bruce: 146,295 votes (46.2%)
- No preference: 5309 voters (1.7%)
Total stars allocated: 1,343,361
Total ballots: 316,855

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★

(one star above is approximately 26,867 stars allocated by voters)

First round:
- ★#0: Golden, Jared Forrest received 525,705 stars (39.1%) from 195,895 voters (61.8%)
- ★#1: Poliquin, Bruce received 483,353 stars (36.0%) from 187,182 voters (59.1%)
- ★#2: Bond, Tiffany received 319,050 stars (23.8%) from 156,082 voters (49.3%)
- ★#3: Write-in received 15,253 stars (1.1%) from 11,846 voters (3.7%)
Finalists:
- ★Golden, Jared Forrest (✅ winner) preferred by 165,251 of 316,855 voters
- ★Poliquin, Bruce preferred by 146,295 of 316,855 voters
- ★No preference between the finalists: 5309

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/pairwise#pairwise

Winner: Golden, Jared Forrest
Runner-up: Poliquin, Bruce (beats all other candidates except Golden, Jared Forrest)
Smallest margin: Poliquin, Bruce over Bond, Tiffany (150,060-111,185; margin: 38,875)
Largest margin: Golden, Jared Forrest over Write-in (195,615-4,605; margin: 191,010)
Pairwise ties: none
Total ballots: 316,855

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 w-l-t table permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/pairwise#wlt

20221108_ME_CD2 (Maine; 2022-11-08) pairwise matchups
Golden, Jared Forrest (3-0-0)	Golden, Jared Forrest 3 victories ⇣
Poliquin, Bruce (2-1-0)	Golden, Jared Forrest: 165,251(52.2%) Poliquin, Bruce: 146,295(46.2%) (No preference: 5,309; 1.7%)	Poliquin, Bruce ⇽ 1 loss / 2 victories^† ⇣
Bond, Tiffany (1-2-0)	Golden, Jared Forrest: 164,839(52.0%) Bond, Tiffany: 53,190(16.8%) (No preference: 98,826; 31.2%)	Poliquin, Bruce: 150,060(47.4%) Bond, Tiffany: 111,185(35.1%) (No preference: 55,610; 17.6%)	Bond, Tiffany ⇽ 2 losses / 1 victory^† ⇣
Write-in (0-3-0)	Golden, Jared Forrest: 195,615(61.7%) Write-in: 4,605(1.5%) (No preference: 116,635; 36.8%)	Poliquin, Bruce: 186,998(59.0%) Write-in: 7,767(2.5%) (No preference: 122,090; 38.5%)	Bond, Tiffany: 154,675(48.8%) Write-in: 2,881(0.9%) (No preference: 159,299; 50.3%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2 pairwise diagram permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/2022-11-08_Maine-20221108_ME_CD2/pairwise#dot

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

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