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Burlington mayoral 2009

🔗 Burl2009     (tags: { 2009 , actual , VT , USA , government , CondorcetVsIRV , CenterSqueeze , featured })

Below is the ABIF from the "Burl2009" election (Burlington mayoral 2009)

ABIF submission area (show)
Method options
Ballot options

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

Results

🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method Winner
IRV/RCV Bob Kiss (Progressive)
FPTP Kurt Wright (Republican)
Approval Andy Montroll (Democrat)
STAR Andy Montroll (Democrat)
Condorcet/Copeland Andy Montroll (Democrat)
Election results summary showing voting method winners
click/tap to expand
tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

Burl2009 IRV/RCV result permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/IRV#IRV

  • IRV/RCV Winner: Bob Kiss (Progressive) with 4,313 votes (48.0%) in final round
  • Runner-up: Kurt Wright (Republican) with 4,061 votes (45.2%) in final round
  • Exhausted ballots in final round: 606 (6.7%)
  • Number of rounds: 5
  • Ballots counted in final round: 8,374 (93.3%)
  • Majority of ballots: 4,491 (50.0%)
  • Total ballots: 8,980
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5
Overview:
Active ballots: 8,980 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 0 (0.0%)
Overvotes: 4 (0.0%)

Counted ballots: 8,976 (100.0%)
Winning threshold: 4,489 (49.99%)
 		Overview:
Active ballots: 8,976 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 3 (0.0%)
Counted ballots: 8,973 (99.9%)
Winning threshold: 4,487 (49.97%)
 		Overview:
Active ballots: 8,976 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 14 (0.2%)
Counted ballots: 8,962 (99.8%)
Winning threshold: 4,482 (49.91%)
 		Overview:
Active ballots: 8,976 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 147 (1.6%)
Counted ballots: 8,829 (98.3%)
Winning threshold: 4,415 (49.16%)
 		Overview:
Active ballots: 8,976 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 602 (6.7%)
Counted ballots: 8,374 (93.3%)
Winning threshold: 4,188 (46.64%)
Kurt Wright (Republican): 2,951 (32.9%)
→
 Kurt Wright (Republican): 2,955 (32.9%)
→
 Kurt Wright (Republican): 2,960 (33.0%)
→
 Kurt Wright (Republican): 3,294 (36.7%)
→
 Kurt Wright (Republican): 4,061 (45.2%) (🛑eliminated)
→
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 2,585 (28.8%)
→
 Bob Kiss (Progressive): 2,599 (28.9%)
→
 Bob Kiss (Progressive): 2,605 (29.0%)
→
 Bob Kiss (Progressive): 2,981 (33.2%)
→
 IRV/RCV winner:
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 4,313 (48.0%)✅
→
Andy Montroll (Democrat): 2,063 (23.0%)
→
 Andy Montroll (Democrat): 2,067 (23.0%)
→
 Andy Montroll (Democrat): 2,080 (23.2%)
→
 Andy Montroll (Democrat): 2,554 (28.4%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 Andy Montroll (Democrat)
Dan Smith (Independent): 1,306 (14.5%)
→
 Dan Smith (Independent): 1,315 (14.6%)
→
 Dan Smith (Independent): 1,317 (14.7%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 Dan Smith (Independent) Dan Smith (Independent)
Write-in: 36 (0.4%)
→
 Write-in: 37 (0.4%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 Write-in Write-in Write-in
James Simpson (Green): 35 (0.4%) (🛑eliminated)
→
 James Simpson (Green) James Simpson (Green) James Simpson (Green) James Simpson (Green)

Overvotes are ballots where multiple candidates are ranked at the same, highest-ranking position.

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
Burl2009 FPTP results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/FPTP#FPTP
📝
Note — Only using first-choices on ranked ballots

  • FPTP Winner: Kurt Wright (Republican) with 2,951 first-place votes (32.9%)
  • Runner-up: Bob Kiss (Progressive) with 2,585 first-place votes (28.8%)
  • Margin of victory: 366 votes (4.1 percentage points)
  • First-place votes
    • Kurt Wright (Republican): 2,951 votes (32.9 %)
    • Bob Kiss (Progressive): 2,585 votes (28.8 %)
    • Andy Montroll (Democrat): 2,063 votes (23.0 %)
    • Dan Smith (Independent): 1,306 votes (14.5 %)
    • Write-in: 36 votes (0.4 %)
    • James Simpson (Green): 35 votes (0.4 %)
  • Overvotes: 4 (0.0 %)
  • Total ballots: 8,980

Approval voting results

Burl2009 approval voting results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/approval#approval
📝
Note — Approval counts estimated from 8,980 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method
Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 4 candidates appear viable: Kurt Wright (Republican), Bob Kiss (Progressive), Andy Montroll (Democrat), and Dan Smith (Independent). The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 2 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 4). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 2 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 8980}
{version: "0.1"}
{title: "2009 Burlington mayoral election"}
{description: "The mayoral election of 2009 when Bob Kiss (from the Vermont Progressive Party), defeated Andy Montroll (from the Democratic Party), and Kurt Wright (from the Republican Party) by the counting rules in place at the time (instant-runoff voting / ranked-choice voting)."}
{wikipedia_url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Burlington,_Vermont_mayoral_election"}
{wikidata_url: "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4999304"}
{official_results_url: "https://web.archive.org/web/20090502034115/http://www.ci.burlington.vt.us/ct/elections/"}
{electowiki_url: "https://electowiki.org/wiki/2009_Burlington_mayoral_election"}
{ext_url_01: "https://web.archive.org/web/20091109022104/http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/20090303/2009%20Burlington%20Mayor%20Round.htm"}
{ballot_type: "ranked"}
{tally_method: "IRV"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=Kiss:[Bob Kiss (Progressive)]
=Montroll:[Andy Montroll (Democrat)]
=Simpson:[James Simpson (Green)]
=Smith:[Dan Smith (Independent)]
=Wright:[Kurt Wright (Republican)]
=Write-in:[Write-in]
#------- votelines ------
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  • Approval Winner: Andy Montroll (Democrat)
  • Approval Results:
    • Andy Montroll (Democrat) (Montroll) — 4,820 approvals (53.67% of ballots) (✅ winner)
    • Bob Kiss (Progressive) (Kiss) — 4,039 approvals (44.98% of ballots)
    • Kurt Wright (Republican) (Wright) — 3,973 approvals (44.24% of ballots)
    • Dan Smith (Independent) (Smith) — 3,526 approvals (39.27% of ballots)
    • James Simpson (Green) (Simpson) — 283 approvals (3.15% of ballots)
    • Write-in — 51 approvals (0.57% of ballots)
  • Total: 8,980 ballots (16,692 total approvals)

STAR results

Burl2009 STAR results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/STAR#STAR
📝
Note — STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method
Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 6 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 5 points, the 2nd choice gets 4 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

  • STAR winner: Andy Montroll (Democrat)
  • Finalists: Andy Montroll (Democrat) vs Bob Kiss (Progressive)
  • Runoff result:
    • Andy Montroll (Democrat): 4,067 votes (45.3%)
    • Bob Kiss (Progressive): 3,477 votes (38.7%)
    • No preference: 1436 voters (16.0%)
  • Total stars allocated: 102,101
  • Total ballots: 8,980
★★★★★★

★★★★★

★★★★★★
★★★★★
★★★★★★
★★★★★
★★★★★★
★★★★★
★★★★★★
(one star above is approximately 2,042 stars allocated by voters)
  • First round:
    • ★#0: Andy Montroll (Democrat) received 26,167 stars (25.6%) from 6,706 voters (74.7%)
    • ★#1: Bob Kiss (Progressive) received 23,408 stars (22.9%) from 6,185 voters (68.9%)
    • ★#2: Kurt Wright (Republican) received 23,049 stars (22.6%) from 6,090 voters (67.8%)
    • ★#3: Dan Smith (Independent) received 22,001 stars (21.5%) from 6,094 voters (67.9%)
    • ★#4: James Simpson (Green) received 6,807 stars (6.7%) from 3,391 voters (37.8%)
    • ★#5: Write-in received 669 stars (0.7%) from 243 voters (2.7%)
  • Finalists:
    • ★Andy Montroll (Democrat) (✅ winner) preferred by 4,067 of 8,980 voters
    • ★Bob Kiss (Progressive) preferred by 3,477 of 8,980 voters
    • ★No preference between the finalists: 1436

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

Burl2009 Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/pairwise#pairwise
  • Winner: Andy Montroll (Democrat)
  • Runner-up: Bob Kiss (Progressive) (beats all other candidates except Andy Montroll (Democrat))
  • Smallest margin: James Simpson (Green) over Write-in (3,338-165; margin: 3,173)
  • Largest margin: Andy Montroll (Democrat) over Write-in (6,658-104; margin: 6,554)
  • Pairwise ties: none
  • Total ballots: 8,980

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

Burl2009 w-l-t table permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/pairwise#wlt
Burlington mayoral 2009 pairwise matchups
Andy Montroll (Democrat)
(5-0-0)
Andy Montroll (Democrat)
5 victories ⇣
Bob Kiss (Progressive)
(4-1-0)
Andy Montroll (Democrat): 4,067(45.3%)
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 3,477(38.7%)
(No preference: 1,436; 16.0%)
Bob Kiss (Progressive)
⇽ 1 loss / 4 victories† ⇣
Kurt Wright (Republican)
(3-2-0)
Andy Montroll (Democrat): 4,597(51.2%)
Kurt Wright (Republican): 3,668(40.8%)
(No preference: 715; 8.0%)
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 4,314(48.0%)
Kurt Wright (Republican): 4,064(45.3%)
(No preference: 602; 6.7%)
Kurt Wright (Republican)
⇽ 2 losses / 3 victories† ⇣
Dan Smith (Independent)
(2-3-0)
Andy Montroll (Democrat): 4,573(50.9%)
Dan Smith (Independent): 2,998(33.4%)
(No preference: 1,409; 15.7%)
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 3,946(43.9%)
Dan Smith (Independent): 3,577(39.8%)
(No preference: 1,457; 16.2%)
Kurt Wright (Republican): 3,975(44.3%)
Dan Smith (Independent): 3,793(42.2%)
(No preference: 1,212; 13.5%)
Dan Smith (Independent)
⇽ 3 losses / 2 victories† ⇣
James Simpson (Green)
(1-4-0)
Andy Montroll (Democrat): 6,267(69.8%)
James Simpson (Green): 591(6.6%)
(No preference: 2,122; 23.6%)
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 5,517(61.4%)
James Simpson (Green): 845(9.4%)
(No preference: 2,618; 29.2%)
Kurt Wright (Republican): 5,274(58.7%)
James Simpson (Green): 1,309(14.6%)
(No preference: 2,397; 26.7%)
Dan Smith (Independent): 5,573(62.1%)
James Simpson (Green): 721(8.0%)
(No preference: 2,686; 29.9%)
James Simpson (Green)
⇽ 4 losses / 1 victory† ⇣
Write-in
(0-5-0)
Andy Montroll (Democrat): 6,658(74.1%)
Write-in: 104(1.2%)
(No preference: 2,218; 24.7%)
Bob Kiss (Progressive): 6,149(68.5%)
Write-in: 116(1.3%)
(No preference: 2,715; 30.2%)
Kurt Wright (Republican): 6,063(67.5%)
Write-in: 163(1.8%)
(No preference: 2,754; 30.7%)
Dan Smith (Independent): 6,057(67.4%)
Write-in: 117(1.3%)
(No preference: 2,806; 31.2%)
James Simpson (Green): 3,338(37.2%)
Write-in: 165(1.8%)
(No preference: 5,477; 61.0%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

Burl2009 pairwise diagram permalink:
🔗https://abif.electorama.com/id/Burl2009/pairwise#dot

%3 Montroll Montroll 5-0-0 (5 wins, 0 losses, 0 ties) Kiss Kiss 4-1-0 Montroll->Kiss ← Montroll: 4067 Kiss: 3477 Wright Wright 3-2-0 Montroll->Wright ← Montroll: 4597 Wright: 3668 Smith Smith 2-3-0 Montroll->Smith ← Montroll: 4573 Smith: 2998 Simpson Simpson 1-4-0 Montroll->Simpson ← Montroll: 6267 Simpson: 591 Write-in Write-in 0-5-0 Montroll->Write-in ← Montroll: 6658 Write-in: 104 Kiss->Wright ← Kiss: 4314 Wright: 4064 Kiss->Smith ← Kiss: 3946 Smith: 3577 Kiss->Simpson ← Kiss: 5517 Simpson: 845 Kiss->Write-in ← Kiss: 6149 Write-in: 116 Wright->Smith ← Wright: 3975 Smith: 3793 Wright->Simpson ← Wright: 5274 Simpson: 1309 Wright->Write-in ← Wright: 6063 Write-in: 163 Smith->Simpson ← Smith: 5573 Simpson: 721 Smith->Write-in ← Smith: 6057 Write-in: 117 Simpson->Write-in ← Simpson: 3338 Write-in: 165

Voting methods: IRV • FPTP • approval • STAR • Pairwise • All methods

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