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Board of Supervisors District 3 (SanFrancisco; 2015-11-03)

πŸ”— 2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3     (tags: { from-bolson , actual , 2015 , 2015-11 , SF , SanFrancisco_CA , CA , SanFrancisco-2015 })

Below is the ABIF from the "2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3" election (Board of Supervisors District 3 (SanFrancisco; 2015-11-03))

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Voting methods: IRV β€’ FPTP β€’ approval β€’ STAR β€’ Pairwise β€’ All methods

Results

πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3

Below are the results of the election represented above using various election methods with abiftool/abiflib. The detected ballot type from the ABIF above is "ranked". Some methods may transform these ballots for analysis; see method notices for details. Resubmit the ABIF with "Transform ballots" turned off to minimize the transformations.

Method Winner
IRV/RCV AARON PESKIN
FPTP AARON PESKIN
Approval AARON PESKIN
STAR AARON PESKIN
Condorcet/Copeland AARON PESKIN
Election results summary showing voting method winners
click/tap to expand
tabbed view

IRV/RCV results

2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 IRV/RCV result permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/IRV#IRV

  • IRV/RCV Winner: AARON PESKIN with 8,730 votes (49.7%) in final round
  • Runner-up: JULIE CHRISTENSEN with 7,252 votes (41.3%) in final round
  • Exhausted ballots in final round: 850 (4.8%)
  • Number of rounds: 1
  • Ballots counted in final round: 16,704 (95.2%)
  • Majority of ballots: 8,778 (50.0%)
  • Total ballots: 17,554
Round 1
Overview:
Active ballots: 17,554 (100.0%)

Exhausted ballots: 850 (4.8%)
Counted ballots: 16,704 (95.2%)
Winning threshold: 8,353 (47.58%)
IRV/RCV winner:
AARON PESKIN: 8,730 (49.7%)βœ…
β†’
JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 7,252 (41.3%) (πŸ›‘eliminated)
β†’
WILMA PANG: 722 (4.1%) (πŸ›‘eliminated)
β†’

FPTP result

"FPTP" is "First-past-the-post", also known as "plurality" or "choose-one"
2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 FPTP results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/FPTP#FPTP
πŸ“
Note β€” Only using first-choices on ranked ballots

  • FPTP Winner: AARON PESKIN with 8,730 first-place votes (49.7%)
  • Runner-up: JULIE CHRISTENSEN with 7,252 first-place votes (41.3%)
  • Margin of victory: 1,478 votes (8.4 percentage points)
  • First-place votes
    • AARON PESKIN: 8,730 votes (49.7 %)
    • JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 7,252 votes (41.3 %)
    • WILMA PANG: 722 votes (4.1 %)
  • Blanks: 850 (4.8 %)
  • Total ballots: 17,554

Approval voting results

2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 approval voting results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/approval#approval
πŸ“
Note β€” Approval counts estimated from 17,554 ranked ballots using favorite_viable_half method
Details

The 'favorite_viable_half' conversion algorithm: find the candidate with the most first preferences, and then determine the minimum number of figurative seats that would need to be open in order for the candidate to exceed the Hare quota with the given first-prefs. We use this to estimate how many candidates are likely to be viable candidates.

Using first-choice vote totals as a rough guide, approximately 2 candidates appear viable: AARON PESKIN and JULIE CHRISTENSEN. The approximation then assumes each voter approves up to 1 of their top-ranked viable candidates (half of 2). All candidates ranked at or above the lowest-ranked of each ballot's top viable candidates receive approval (considering up to 1 viable candidates per ballot).

See transformed ballots

Note: For Approval, these choose_many ballots are inferred from ranked ballots.

Conversion method: favorite_viable_half

#------- metadata -------
{ballotcount: 17554}
{version: "0.1"}
{ballotcount_abif_metadata: "17554"}
{is_ranking_to_rating: true}
#------ candlines ------
=[AARON PESKIN]:[AARON PESKIN]
=[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]
=[WILMA PANG]:[WILMA PANG]
#------- votelines ------
3589:[AARON PESKIN]/1
3055:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
1286:[AARON PESKIN]/1
1256:[AARON PESKIN]/1
1223:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
981:[AARON PESKIN]/1
943:[AARON PESKIN]/1
884:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
821:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
728:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
504:[AARON PESKIN]/1
379:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
124:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
107:[AARON PESKIN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
81:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
47:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
46:[AARON PESKIN]/1
41:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
40:[AARON PESKIN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
40:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
36:[AARON PESKIN]/1
35:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
34:[AARON PESKIN]/1
33:[AARON PESKIN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
30:[AARON PESKIN]/1
25:[AARON PESKIN]/1
22:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
18:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1
13:[JULIE CHRISTENSEN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
3:[AARON PESKIN]/1=[WILMA PANG]/1
  • Approval Winner: AARON PESKIN
  • Approval Results:
    • AARON PESKIN — 8,913 approvals (50.77% of ballots) (βœ… winner)
    • JULIE CHRISTENSEN — 7,511 approvals (42.79% of ballots)
    • WILMA PANG — 442 approvals (2.52% of ballots)
  • Total: 17,554 ballots (16,866 total approvals)

STAR results

2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 STAR results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/STAR#STAR
πŸ“
Note β€” STAR ratings estimated from ranked ballots using Borda scoring method
Details

The ranked ballots have been converted to STAR ratings using Borda scoring: each candidate receives points equal to (number_of_candidates - their_rank). In this election, we have 3 candidates, so the 1st choice gets 2 points, the 2nd choice gets 1 points, etc. These Borda scores are then used as STAR ratings for tabulation by STAR.

  • STAR winner: AARON PESKIN
  • Finalists: AARON PESKIN vs JULIE CHRISTENSEN
  • Runoff result:
    • AARON PESKIN: 8,913 votes (50.8%)
    • JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 7,511 votes (42.8%)
    • No preference: 1130 voters (6.4%)
  • Total stars allocated: 41,396
  • Total ballots: 17,554
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
(one star above is approximately 828 stars allocated by voters)
  • First round:
    • β˜…#0: AARON PESKIN received 18,905 stars (45.7%) from 10,175 voters (58.0%)
    • β˜…#1: JULIE CHRISTENSEN received 16,594 stars (40.1%) from 9,342 voters (53.2%)
    • β˜…#2: WILMA PANG received 5,897 stars (14.2%) from 5,175 voters (29.5%)
  • Finalists:
    • β˜…AARON PESKIN (βœ… winner) preferred by 8,913 of 17,554 voters
    • β˜…JULIE CHRISTENSEN preferred by 7,511 of 17,554 voters
    • β˜…No preference between the finalists: 1130

NOTE: Since ratings or stars are not present in the provided ballots, allocated stars are estimated using a Borda-like formula.

Condorcet/Copeland results

2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 Condorcet/Copeland results permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/pairwise#pairwise
  • Winner: AARON PESKIN
  • Runner-up: JULIE CHRISTENSEN (beats all other candidates except AARON PESKIN)
  • Smallest margin: AARON PESKIN over JULIE CHRISTENSEN (8,913-7,511; margin: 1,402)
  • Largest margin: AARON PESKIN over WILMA PANG (9,992-2,882; margin: 7,110)
  • Pairwise ties: none
  • Total ballots: 17,554

Win-loss-tie (Condorcet/Copeland) table

2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 w-l-t table permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/pairwise#wlt
Board of Supervisors District 3 (SanFrancisco; 2015-11-03) pairwise matchups
AARON PESKIN
(2-0-0)
AARON PESKIN
2 victories ⇣
JULIE CHRISTENSEN
(1-1-0)
AARON PESKIN: 8,913(50.8%)
JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 7,511(42.8%)
(No preference: 1,130; 6.4%)
JULIE CHRISTENSEN
⇽ 1 loss / 1 victory† ⇣
WILMA PANG
(0-2-0)
AARON PESKIN: 9,992(56.9%)
WILMA PANG: 2,882(16.4%)
(No preference: 4,680; 26.7%)
JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 9,083(51.7%)
WILMA PANG: 3,015(17.2%)
(No preference: 5,456; 31.1%)

Pairwise tournament (Copeland ordered)

2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3 pairwise diagram permalink:
πŸ”—https://abif.electorama.com/id/2015-11-03_SanFrancisco-Board_of_Supervisors_District_3/pairwise#dot

%3 AARON PESKIN AARON PESKIN 2-0-0 (2 wins, 0 losses, 0 ties) JULIE CHRISTENSEN JULIE CHRISTENSEN 1-1-0 AARON PESKIN->JULIE CHRISTENSEN ← AARON PESKIN: 8913 JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 7511 WILMA PANG WILMA PANG 0-2-0 AARON PESKIN->WILMA PANG ← AARON PESKIN: 9992 WILMA PANG: 2882 JULIE CHRISTENSEN->WILMA PANG ← JULIE CHRISTENSEN: 9083 WILMA PANG: 3015

Voting methods: IRV β€’ FPTP β€’ approval β€’ STAR β€’ Pairwise β€’ All methods

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